I am in complete sympathy with the conclusions of this article about excess deaths. However, I think I have found an important error that needs to be corrected. When comparing the number of new Covid cases in vaccinated vs. unvaccinated patients, the comparison only works if the same number of people in the population have been vaccinate…
I am in complete sympathy with the conclusions of this article about excess deaths. However, I think I have found an important error that needs to be corrected. When comparing the number of new Covid cases in vaccinated vs. unvaccinated patients, the comparison only works if the same number of people in the population have been vaccinated as unvaccinated. If the majority of the population has been vaccinated then the number of new Covid cases in that subgroup may be greater than the number in the unvaccinated group simply because there are a lot more people in the vaccinated group, unless the vaccine is 100% effective. For example, if there are 100 people vaccinated and only 10 people unvaccinated then the number of people with new Covid would be 5 in the vaccinated group if the vaccine is 50% effective and the incidence of new Covid was 10%. The number of new Covid cases in the unvaccinated group would be 1. The fact that there were 5 new cases in the vaccinated group vs. 1 in the unvaccinated group does not mean that the vaccine was completely inneffective or negatively effective against Covid. There were simple a lot more people in the vaccinated group. One needs to compare the percentage of people with new Covid in each group, not the raw number.
I am in complete sympathy with the conclusions of this article about excess deaths. However, I think I have found an important error that needs to be corrected. When comparing the number of new Covid cases in vaccinated vs. unvaccinated patients, the comparison only works if the same number of people in the population have been vaccinated as unvaccinated. If the majority of the population has been vaccinated then the number of new Covid cases in that subgroup may be greater than the number in the unvaccinated group simply because there are a lot more people in the vaccinated group, unless the vaccine is 100% effective. For example, if there are 100 people vaccinated and only 10 people unvaccinated then the number of people with new Covid would be 5 in the vaccinated group if the vaccine is 50% effective and the incidence of new Covid was 10%. The number of new Covid cases in the unvaccinated group would be 1. The fact that there were 5 new cases in the vaccinated group vs. 1 in the unvaccinated group does not mean that the vaccine was completely inneffective or negatively effective against Covid. There were simple a lot more people in the vaccinated group. One needs to compare the percentage of people with new Covid in each group, not the raw number.