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Major Mike Webb's avatar

I would recommend looking at the CDC study on the Guangzhou restaurant outbreak, a study that presented a lot of information regarding capabilities, hidden in open view, no tips required. The original strain required an exposure of about an hour, which would be consistent with the infectious dose (ID) of at least 100k particles found in everything we've challenge studied from Syrian hamsters to Rhesus monkeys. The outlier study on humans published by Killingsley searched through 38,000 volunteers between the ages of 18 and 35, which suggests they had some stringent criteria for what they were looking for, and 18 of 36 required an ID of only 10.

By definition, a highly contagious disease has an ID no higher than 15, and a secondary attack rate of at least 60%. As you see in this study, the first variant of COVID-19 was only highly contagious, and hence capable of setting off a super spreader event, only for them.

Guangzhou, where nine people, age 20 to 84, were infected in about an hour, tells us that your IFR, which is not a standard rate an epidemiologist would use in prevention and control, is manipulated, because the virus can infect people of any age , by function of sufficient exposure, which would be tied to a location, consistent with the findings throughout pandemic, regardless of variant, that they found no wider community spread.

In a past life, I was actually a biological warfare planner, and in the present I had docketed for certiorari at the Supreme Court a half dozen cases in less than a year during pandemic. Or, I can actually be certified as an expert in court,

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